GA, AL PRIMARY PREVIEW; PREZ, US SEN & GOV POLLS; NC CONGRESSIONAL CHALLENGER SUSPENDS RUN.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent polls from swing states (and states that appear to be evolving into swing states):
COLORADO (PPP-D): Obama - 47%, McCain - 43%.
IOWA (Rasmussen): Obama - 51%, McCain - 41%.
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama - 50%, McCain - 42%.
MINNESOTA (Rasmussen): Obama - 54%, McCain - 37%.
SOUTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): McCain - 47%, Obama - 43%.

GEORGIA. Tuesday is primary day in Georgia. Five Dems are competing in the US Senate primary, although any of them will be a decided underdog against incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) in November. While several House incumbents face primary opponents, only two are engaged in truly competitive primary races. In CD-10, freshman Congressman Paul Broun (R) -- a self-proclaimed ally of libertarian Congressman Ron Paul -- is being challenged by social conservative State Representative Barry Fleming. Broun won the special election last year in an upset, following the death of Congressman Charlie Norwood (R). The local GOP establishment is backing Fleming, as Broun is seen as a loose cannon, but the incumbent appears to have a slight edge in recent days. In CD-12, Blue Dog Dem Congressman John Barrow faces a challenge from State Senator Regina Thomas. Thomas, who is black, is hoping for a large black primary turn-out. She argues Barrow is a good man but far too conservative to represent the Democratic Party. Barrow, who is well-financed, believes his views are solidly in line with the district.

ALABAMA. Two Congressional primary run-offs on Tuesday. In CD-2, State Representative Jay Love and State Senator Harri Ann Smith are locked in a nasty and highly competitive GOP race. No clear favorite, although the NRCC has lined up behind Love. The winner will be slightly favored over Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) in November. Congressman Terry Everett (R) is retiring. In CD-5, advertising executive Wayne Parker should defeat attorney Cheryl Baswell Guthrie (R) by a comfortable margin. However, State Senator Parker Griffith (D) is favored to win the general election for the seat being vacated by retiring Congressman Bud Cramer (D).

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for US Senate races.
COLORADO (PPP-D): Congressman Mark Udall (D) - 47%, former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R) - 38%.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests.
MISSOURI - GOP PRIMARY (St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Research 2000): Congressman Kenny Hulshof - 32%, State Treasurer Sarah Steelman - 24%, teacher Scott Long - 12%, retiree Jen Sievers - 5%.
MISSOURI (St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Research 2000): Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) - 52%, Congressman Kenny Hulshof (R) - 35%.
MISSOURI (St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Research 2000): Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) - 53%, State Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) - 34%.

NORTH CAROLINA. Move freshman Congressman Heath Shuler (D) into the safe column, based upon the recent bizarre conduct by his GOP opponent. According to The Hill, Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower (R) has informally suspended his campaign until he can get a majority of the fifteen Republican county organizations in CD-11 to sign his statement of core principles. Until then, Mumpower said he will not advertise his candidacy or collect any campaign contributions. "I'll fight my party first, and then take on my opponent after we've accomplished that job," said Mumpower. While Mumpower is generating headlines in his district over these antics, he is alienating leaders of his own party and the NRCC. "I can go along with him asking for a recommitment to those principles, but I don't know if I go along with him suspending his campaign," said Buncombe County Republican Party Tim Johnson to the Asheville Citizen-Times.

Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 07.15.08