ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENT COULD FALL ON PRIMARY DAY IN KANSAS, MICHIGAN, MISSOURI; RUN-OFF DAY IN GEORGIA; AND SIX NEW PREZ POLLS.

KANSAS. Former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) will win an easy victory in Tuesday's US Senate primary. Slattery will face US Senator Pat Roberts (R) in November. Senate race rating: GOP Favored. The hot race to watch in the state on Tuesday is the GOP primary in CD-2. State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins and former Congressman Jim Ryun are locked in a very tough contest symbolic of the ongoing split within the Kansas Republican Party. Jenkins is from the moderate wing of the party, while Ryun is closely aligned with the hardcore Religious Right faction. Traditionally the candidates from the conservative wing of the party win low turnout primary contests, so we'd give Ryun a slight edge. Either one will provide a highly competitive challenge in the general election against freshman Congressman Nancy Boyda (D). Boyda is possibly the most endangered House Democrat in the nation. Race rating: No Clear Favorite.

MICHIGAN. There are five congressional primaries on Tuesday, but the only race worth watching is the hot CD-13 Democratic primary. Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick -- the mother and staunchest defender of indicted Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick -- is facing the fight of her political life. State Senator Martha Scott and former State Representative Mary Waters are both aggressive challengers to the incumbent, although recent polling shows Waters being the stronger of the two. Kilpatrick is counting on the two challengers splitting the opposition vote, allowing her to narrowly win another term. However, Kilpatrick is clearly vulnerable and appears likely to lose Tuesday if Waters can gain a solid advantage over Scott. The winner of the primary -- any of the three -- will win in November in this solidly Dem district.

MISSOURI. Two Republicans -- Congressman Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman -- are waging a costly gubernatorial primary to replace unpopular retiring Governor Matt Blunt (R). Polls in the final days show Hulhof holding an advantage. The winner will face Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) in November. Race rating: Leans DEM. The two CD-9 primaries for Hulshof's open seat are also hotly contested, with five Republicans and four Democrats running. On the GOP side, former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer and State Representative Bob Onder are the frontrunners, although former pro football player Brock Olivo also continues to generate some attention. On the Dem side, State Representative Judy Baker appears to be a slight favorite over former State House Speaker Steve Gaw, former State Senator Ken Jacob and Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode. The three men are all to the right of Baker, which is likely help her by splitting the more centrist and Blue Dog vote. Baker has also outraised her primary foes in campaign cash. Race rating: GOP Favored.

GEORGIA. Tuesday is also primary run-off day in the Peach State. While DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones placed first in last month's Democratic primary for US Senate, he is likely to lose today. The primary opponents eliminated last month have rallied behind former State Representative Jim Martin -- the '06 Lieutenant Governor nominee -- and Martin appears likely to defeat Jones. Independent polls also show Martin significantly stronger against US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) in the general election, although the incumbent will still be favored over Martin.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
ALABAMA (Rasmussen): McCain - 58%, Obama - 38%.
ARIZONA (Rasmussen): McCain - 57%, Obama - 38%.
ARIZONA (PPP-D): McCain - 52%, Obama - 40%.
CONNECTICUT (Rasmussen): Obama - 53%, McCain - 40%.
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 50%, Obama - 44%, Others - 3%.
MASSACHUSETTS (Suffolk Univ.): Obama - 47%, McCain - 38%.

Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.05.08