ALASKA, FLORIDA PRIMARY PREVIEW; DEM CONVO UPDATE; SEVEN NEW POLLS.

There may -- or may not -- be an update on Tuesday evening. I'll be celebrating at the primary victory party for my boss, so I may not post anything. Or maybe I will.

ALASKA. The hottest political story of Tuesday comes form the coldest state in the nation. US Senator Ted Stevens (R) -- recently indicted on federal corruption charges -- is facing an aggressive primary challenge from former State Representative Dave Cuddy and wealthy businessman Vic Vickers. Polls, however, show Stevens holding a landslide lead over his GOP foes. With Stevens likely to win Tuesday's primary, he will remain a slim underdog against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) in November. The big upset on Tuesday may come in the at-large US House race. Congressman Don Young (R) -- also the target of a federal corruption probe -- appears much more endangered on Tuesday. Polls show the powerful 18-term incumbent locked in a virtual tie with Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell for the Republican nomination, with State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux trailing far behind. Popular Governor Sarah Palin and the Club for Growth are backing Parnell, but Young has been running a very feisty and combative campaign in these final days. Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz will easily win the Democratic congressional primary. If Young wins the primary, Berkowitz will be a slight favorite in the general election. If Parnell defeats Young, he will be favored to win in November.

FLORIDA. There are eleven congressional contests on Tuesday's ballot, with two races of particular note. In CD-15, four Republicans are competing to replace retiring Congressman Dave Weldon (R). State Senator Bill Posey is solidly backed by Weldon and the GOP establishment, and should win handily. In CD-16, the NRCC has made freshman Congressman Tim Mahoney (D) one of the party's top 3 national targets. Mahoney won in the fluke election after Congressman Mark Foley (R) was forced to withdraw late in the race after being implicated in a sex scandal. Three Republicans are battling it out for the seat, with wealthy attorney Tom Rooney and State Representative Gayle Harrell viewed as the frontrunners. Either one will make this race a toss-up contest in November.

DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION. Monday night saw what may be ailing Senator Ted Kennedy's final convention speech to the party, plus Michelle Obama' big address.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
COLORADO (Suffolk Univ.): Obama - 44%, McCain - 39%.
MICHIGAN (Detroit News): Obama - 43%, McCain - 41%.
OHIO (Columbus Dispatch): McCain - 42%, Obama - 41%.
TEXAS (Rasmussen): McCain - 50%, Obama - 41%.

US SENATE. Here are the latest independent polls for US Senate races.
COLORADO (Suffolk Univ.): Congressman Mark Udall (D) - 39%, former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R) - 31%.
MICHIGAN (Detroit News): US Senator Carl Levin (D) - 59%, State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R) - 27%.
TEXAS (Rasmussen): US Senator John Cornyn (R) - 48%, State Rep. Rick Noriega (D) - 37%.

Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.26.08